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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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